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The global photovoltaic (PV) industry has witnessed a sudden and significant shift, transitioning rapidly from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market. Recent market signals indicate tightening supply, surging demand, and rising prices across major component manufacturers.
Spot Inventory Cleared, Supply Tightens
According to industry sources, spot inventories of popular module models from leading manufacturers such as Trina Solar, Tongwei, and Canadian Solar have been largely depleted. Production lines have entered a “produce-and-ship” mode, with procurement lead times extended by 5–7 days, now averaging around 15 days.
Even fourth- and fifth-tier manufacturers are reportedly able to sell modules easily, provided they have available inventory. This rapid tightening of supply has reshaped market dynamics almost overnight.
As supply constraints intensify, price increases have followed swiftly. Module prices have risen by approximately 20%, with some first-tier brands officially adjusting prices from 0.67 CNY/W to 0.72 CNY/W. Sales teams at major manufacturers report extremely busy order pipelines.
Leading companies such as Trina Solar and LONGi increased ex-factory prices by 0.02–0.05 CNY/W last week alone. Price hikes have already been confirmed in both domestic Chinese and European markets. Industry analysts now expect module prices to move closer to the 0.80 CNY/W range in the near term.
The sudden market reversal can be traced back to structural adjustments and policy-driven demand acceleration.
In 2024, the PV industry struggled with prolonged low prices, widespread losses, and overcapacity. To stabilize the market, industry players implemented self-discipline measures, including coordinated production cuts and controlled capacity releases.
A key turning point came on February 9, 2025, when China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy Grid-connected Electricity Prices and Promoting High-quality Development of New Energy. The policy designated June 1, 2025, as a critical transition point, directly triggering a new wave of rush-to-install activity.
To secure returns before policy changes took effect, developers accelerated project timelines, sharply increasing short-term demand for PV modules.
Following the Spring Festival, demand rebounded strongly both domestically and overseas. Large-scale centralized projects in China moved forward rapidly, while excess inventories in European markets were gradually absorbed.
At the same time, the PV supply chain remained fragile. By the end of 2024, industry-wide inventories had dropped to historic lows, with many manufacturers’ order books already filled through Q2 2025. Delivery cycles lengthened, and instances of material shortages, order cancellations, and aggressive order competition became increasingly common.
History offers a cautionary lesson. After the June 30, 2016, installation rush, PV module prices experienced a sharp decline, followed by prolonged capacity clearance.
In 2025, while module prices are rising under multiple favorable factors, uncertainty remains. The rush-driven surge in installations may temporarily support pricing, but once demand cools, the industry could again face downward price pressure amid capacity adjustments.
Ultimately, whether prices continue to rise will depend on sustained market growth in the second half of the year and a genuine improvement in supply-demand fundamentals—not just policy-driven demand spikes.
Despite short-term volatility, industry observers remain cautiously optimistic. Recent policy reforms aim to encourage high-quality, market-oriented development, reducing destructive price competition and promoting sustainable growth.
Once demand stabilizes and inventory pressures are fully absorbed, the photovoltaic industry may enter the early stages of a new growth cycle, characterized by healthier pricing, stronger fundamentals, and more rational capacity expansion.
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